Thoughts on and Implications of the 2024 U.S. President Election
If you’re reading this now, Donald Trump has been re-elected to the office of President of the United States in 2024. Looking back on his first election in 2016, the general Xitter sentiment from people in favour of him seems to be more tempered and less excited compared to his first election, although the amount of hysterics seems to be about the same.
Personally, while I would have preferred he win this time, I do have more mixed feelings about the matter compared to the first time around — of course, as a non-American, it’s ultimately their choice who should be elected to office in their country, regardless of outsiders’ opinions.
In many ways, Trump’s 1st term was a disappointment in regards to driving the change he promised, failing to deliver on much of his promises while seemingly under no pressure to fold, and I remember that there was quite a bit of disillusionment with him towards the end of 2020 even with people in his camp, some of which I shared. However, his loss in 2020 proved to be a reset button for his campaign, taking the opportunity to change his message and surround himself with people more supportive of his vision. His son Barron has come of age, getting Trump to become more engaged in ways he had not been previously, such as likely being responsible for getting Trump on the Joe Rogan podcast. VP-elect Vance is also a lot more articulate than Trump, who, while seldom a strong public speaker himself and more of a conversationalist, had a stronger VP compared to former VP Pence, whose seemingly sole purpose was to be a vehicle for establishment and various corporate interests and bolster Trump with part of that support. The attempt on his life also bolstered his image as a leader, compared to his opponent(s) who spent little time in the public eye, or only in heavily controlled contexts, although it remains to be seen how much that will affect his policies. While it would be no surprise for Trump to renege on much of his platform due to his track record, one could say this is the best time for a “redemption arc”, something that, in my opinion, would not have materialized he stayed a second consecutive term. With this in mind, I hope I am pleasantly surprised by his second presidency.
Another elephant in the room for Trump’s victory is Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter/X. There was much less suppression of certain trends and stories compared to before his takeover. Sure, there is such thing as platform manipulation. However, it was much less one-sided compared to before — community notes, a feature implemented under Elon, seem like a better, if imperfect way to address a certain post rather than resorting to immediate censorship and suspension. Musk’s endorsement of Trump himself surely played a role.
While Trump also courted young White men more explicitly than before, his “coalition” was more big tent compared to before. Sending an olive branch to RFK Jr. by including him in his cabinet indicates he may show less partisanship compared to the first time around, regardless of his campaign centering around attacking the Democratic party for its failures. It remains to be seen whether this will have affect his policies in contrast with his platform — or the hypothetically influentially Project 2025 — when he enters office remains to be seen (mass deportation being the big one here). Fixing a deteriorating economy is also an ambitious project, something that he can impact, but reversing the trends can be a tall order, especially if he spends much of his time waffling around like during his first term.
Next, a subtle difference is that Trump himself did not position himself as an anti-establishment champion like he used to during 2016. Sure, there were shades of this throughout his campaign, but he also enjoyed more open institutional backing and support compared to before. Even as Trump drew more and more controversy over time, that did seemingly nothing to hinder support, much from factions that once he enjoyed less support with. Related to this, pro-Israeli/Zionist factions and interests are likely the clear winner in this election regardless of the victorious candidate, although Trump himself holds some personal resentment for Netanyahu.
As with any politician, Trump is best treated as being given credit for when he does something good, and criticized when he does something poorly. This being said, he is the most internationally influential politician this century by far, whether one loves him or hates him. The world watches with bated breath and acts the way it does is because of the perceived challenging of international norms that are associated with Trump himself. For that reason alone, he deserves respect, even if it be born of trepidation. You might say that is also associated with the office he holds, and that would be true. Since the attempt on his life in Butler, Pennsylvania, he has become a symbol moreso than a man. He is someone who’s hindered little by controversy, but someone who becomes an idea of what could be. To a large degree, this is why he has much of the staying power he does.
In Canada in particular, Trump is also owed a level of respect rather than maintaining the common Canadian arrogance of thinking you know what’s best for your bigger neighbour and how awful they are for not being like you (despite the differences between them often being overstated). That’s not to say Trump should be exempted from criticism, but the days of hysterical screeching as legitimate politics, whether within a country and without, seem to have become the death sentence they deserved to be all along. Of course, it is quite possible that the Trump administration may harm Canada’s economy through tariffs or if the renegotiation of USMCA unexpectedly falls through, but more likely, Canada and the United States will maintain a close, positive relationship, without any major changes. If Trump successfully pulls off a mass deportation program, this could also affect Canada’s odds to do the same for many in the country who have overstayed their visas/welcomes, as it grapples with an unprecedent, unsustainable surge in migration and cost of living. That is, assuming there isn’t a holier-than-thou “everyone is welcome” reactionary backlash.
Finally, a few words about Kamala Harris’ campaign and ticket. Obviously, converting the Biden campaign into the Harris campaign overnight was a tall order. However, her strategy of mostly straying from the public eye while likely hoping that Trump would dig his own grave backfired terribly. Initially I thought she might be a Hillary 2.0, but upon further reflection, it’s more that Harris did not give a “It’s my birthright to rule over you peasants” impression like Hillary, instead doing little in the way of the current difficulties and ineptness of the administration she was in. Perhaps she was doomed from the start due to the current state of things. Perhaps there was something she could have done. But, overall, she came off as very… unremarkable, instead playing into her heritage for diversity points a lot of the time. Even if she didn’t come off to me as very pleasant personally, she was not incredibly grating on the nerves in the same was Hillary Clinton was. Which is a point in her favour, but I think she appealed to the kind of people she would already appeal to, rather than winning over new legions to her cause due to her personality. If you swapped the ticket of Walz and Harris, you’d run into a similar issue, except perhaps worse. While Harris is an ok debater and conversationalist, Walz in particular came off as a doddering fool almost every time he opened his mouth, like a a well-meaning uncle who suffered one too many concussions from playing college football in his youth. His non-explicit purpose on the ticket was to check the “slightly campy liberal White man” box, and that’s as far as his appeal went. Trump himself has moments of incoherence — in no small part due to his age — although Walz never could make up with it with a level of charisma or witty one-liners that Trump could. Vance being the youngest of anyone in the ticket, came across as arguably the most articulate and frank, and sincere (even though it’s hilarious that he’d gladly end up on the ticket with, his own previous words “America’s Hitler”).
Overall, the Harris campaign came across as “more of what we have now”, “reject Trump’s []-ism”, which did not have as broad appeal as they she hoped he would. As an armchair political strategist, I propose she could have distanced herself from Biden more — e.g. say something along the lines of, we learned from the things we are doing wrong and we are doing this and that to fix them (as opposed to burying your head in the sand) — and made an effort to acknowledge and show she values — at least nominally — particular demographics, namely (younger to middle-aged) White men and women. Obviously, paying so much as lip service to people who you covertly think have ruined your country is too much to ask, so she would never do that.
With this election past us, I hope that the people, whether Americans or not, reading this will put their energy into what they can affect around them, regardless of what else may happen. That is the best way to persevere and find fulfillment and happiness, and not get invested in things outside of your control, whether they be for you or against you.
Oh yes, I also slightly rebranded my substack.